Prop firm pass probability calculator
Put in a plan's rules and how you trade. We run 10,000 simulated attempts and show your chance to pass, what usually ends an attempt and what getting funded costs you on average.
1. Load a real plan (optional)
2. The plan's rules
3. How you trade
Your result
Set the rules and your trading, then run it. We play out 10,000 attempts with your win rate and risk and count how many pass.
How to use it
- Load a real plan from the firms we track, or type the rules yourself.
- Be honest with your numbers. Use the win rate and reward:risk from your last 50–100 trades, not your best week.
- Change one thing at a time. Try half the risk per trade, or a firm with end-of-day trailing, and watch the expected cost.
What the model leaves out
Trades are independent and every win and loss is the same size. Real trading has streaks, slippage and days you break your own rules. Consistency rules, scaling and resets are not modelled. Treat the result as a comparison between plans, not a promise.
FAQ
How is the chance to pass calculated?
We simulate 10,000 attempts. Each trade wins your reward:risk times your risk with your win rate, or loses your risk. An attempt passes when it reaches the profit target after the minimum days, and fails when it touches the max loss floor or the daily loss limit.
What is a good chance to pass?
It depends on the fee. A 30% chance on a $100 challenge means about $330 in fees per funded account on average. The expected-cost number turns your odds into money, which is easier to compare across firms.
Why does lowering risk per trade often raise the pass rate?
Smaller risk means more trades fit between you and the max loss, so a normal losing streak is less likely to end the attempt. If your edge is positive, more trades give it room to show. Too small and you run out of time instead.
Is intraday trailing really that much harder?
Usually yes. Intraday trailing raises the floor during the day on every new high, so a winning morning followed by a pullback can breach it. End-of-day trailing only moves on your closing balance.
These tools are estimates for planning, not predictions or financial advice. Prop trading can cost you every fee you pay.